One leg too few no more. Playoff picks proceeding

So again, we take a look at the Orange Crystal Ball moving from the unidextrous to bidextrous results.

The first weekend, I have to say, was more than a little strange. From the sublime of the Dynamo/Seattle match to the ridiculous of Warzycha sitting Moreno AND Schelotto to the utterly predictable of a Steve Nicol-team being Lucy to the Chicago Fire's Charlie Brown to the completely surreal of the HDClasico draw. So without anymore bloviating, we'll start on this weekend:

Regular season: 91-125 for a percentage of .421 or 19 games over blind chance
Playoffs so far: 1-3

I added the first line there just to salve my wounds over last week. But will that stop me? Hell no.


REAL SALT LAKE at CREW. 2-0 Columbus You know, I have to say that Robert Warzycha sitting both Alejandro Moreno and Guillermo Barros Schelotto took me completely by surprise. If I were RSL, I'd be plenty pissed at being disrespected like that. That being said, controversy or no, the defending champs are going to have to pretty much fall over to lose at home to RSL. For the anarchic nature of it all, I'm rooting for the Royals, but I don;t expect it to happen at all. Crew go through, but maybe with a few scary moments.

REVOLUTION at FIRE. 1-1 New England is in those guys' heads. Expect to see a flurry of shots from Chicago, one after the other after the other, and Matt Reis batting them all aside to get through to the Eastern finals.

CHIVAS at GALAXY. 2-1 LA You know, I really, really hope las chivitas beats these guys, not because I hate the Gals. Really, I don't. I think that team is very, very good. But (A), Dynamo need Chivas to win so we can get the Western Final here in Houston; (B) The sooner this Beckham thing is over the better; and (C) See (A). However, my head says something completely different here. I think we saw in the first 90 the best Chivas can possibly do, while that is not true about the Gals. So Goatpeople, here's one for you. And Gals, see you next week.

SOUNDERS at DYNAMO 2-1 Houston There is no way I can possibly be dispassionate in analyzing this game. None at all. I think there are a great deal of results for which, in a dispassionate sense, you could make plausible cases as likely scenarios. So while I go against my heart in Columbus and La La Land, I can not here at home. Key factors that will play roles are: Dynamo are at home; The Orange are playing with toughness and confidence that was so evident in May and June (not to mention 2006 and 2007); The short field; the Sea of Orange; The experience of being in this position before; The leftover feeling of 2008. So my head and heart are in agreement. I am Orange. Read more!

Tuning the crystal ball to the playoffs

Apparently, there are six other playoff teams out there fighting for second place. And, get this, they actually all will play their entire ties BEFORE Dynamo run the Greens on Nov. 8. (Homer? Me? What ya talkin' about?)

So now I turn my prediction energies to the postseason, and just to help myself out I will only predict the first legs (The more games I predict, the better my chance to finish with something approaching respectable. That or crash and burn with great alacrity!). And well I should worry, since last week I went 4-4 in the final week of the season to conclude my regular season prediction rampage at 91-125 for a percentage of .421 or 19 games over blind chance. That's 19 games over, which means that no one, but no one should base any bets here. Or this might happen to you:



But undaunted, we forge ahead. The playoffs are a new season and time to plunge ahead for first leg picks:

DYNAMO at SOUNDERS 1-1 Draw Yesterday's post contains this pick and in keeping with my season-long practice of counting the result and not the score, I start the weekend already up 1-0. We'll see how long that lasts!

CREW at REAL SALT LAKE 2-1 Columbus I know it has become something of a trendy call to have RSL win or tie here as if Rio Tinto is Fortress Utah or something. But you know what, RSL is the weakest team in the playoffs. And of course, so was New York last year, claim the trendmeisters. I concede the point. But eventually, lightning does not strike the same place the same way. I don't think that Crew's recent MLS form is any indicator at all. So go ahead, RSL, prove me wrong.

FIRE at REVOLUTION. 1-1 Draw Chicago is not really an offensive powerhouse, while New England will not be surrendering many chances at home. The Revs have owned this playoff series recently, especially in Foxboro. But I will not pick them to win this game because, let's face it, without Stevie R., they just are not that good, and Larentowitz can not strike cannon shots into the back of the net every week. Fire do what they need to do here to bring the series home next week.

GALAXY at CHIVAS (or is that the other way around?) 2-0 Gals In what the inestimable Dan Loney has termed the PooperScooperClasico, las chivitas is going to be exposed as the pretenders they are. I think the Gals are going to go through Chivas like you-know-what through a goose. But you want to make it interesting? More Loney: "Ideally, this would be a Loser Leaves Town match. If the Galaxy wins, Chivas moves. If CUSA wins, Beckham never returns. I could handle that." You and me both Dan. And while I am really rooting for the Amerigoats here so that the Western final could be here at Robertson, I honestly don't see how that team can beat that team. So Chivas, do your best out there and give us all an upset to remember, equivalent to when KC whipped you in 2007. But don't expect me to put money on you. Read more!

Order from chaos, final weekend picks

"We adore chaos because we love to produce order."
~ M.C. Escher

In the delicious disorder that has marked the final weeks of the MLS season will come some order after this weekend, and it all started in that mudpit in Bridgeview last night.

So did anyone check out that Chicago/Chivas game last night? What a messy, messy beast. And I'm not talking about the weather. I honestly think Chicago's only hope in the playoffs, and I think they are a very, very good side, is to have games go to penalty kicks. Patrick Nyarko has go to be one of the worst-finishing starters in the MLS.

But as for the factors that mean something to the Naranjaverse, I would have to say that we all saw Chivas exposed again for what they are, a slightly above-average side with serious holes in the back filled by the aging Zach Thornton and an attack that can only be described in a way that does disservice to all those out there who are really are anemic. Yesteday I remarked on ow Dynamo is out of sync. But the comparison is that Dynamo is a Maserati that needs some new spark plugs, while Chivas is some random GM car trying to convince themselves and everyone else when they say "May the best car win."

So what I saw warmed my heart for the weekend and has me actually feeling some of that playoff mojo. I can only hope that those guys out on the near left edge of the color spectrum feel the same way.

As for the playoffs, here are my predictions from Oct. 2:

Crew, Dynamo, LAG, Fire, Rapids, Toronto, Sounders, Chivas

If the season were to end right now, I would be dead on with that prediction. Eight for fuh-reakin' eight. I would only have missed on the order, but hey, when you're sitting where I am on the weekly prediction, I will not quibble. However, I will not be counting those eggs just yet as there is some more hatching to be done over the next few days. The Rapids and Toronto have some work to do in order to make my ocho de perfecto come to pass, and you know what, I think they're going to do exactly that.

But before I get to that I just want to interrupt this prediction fest (my final one of the regular season, to offer a very short defense of the MLS playoffs. I know all about the arguments from purists (and I sympathize and agree to a point with ALL of them) that playoffs are anti-football, anti-tradition and make a mockery of the regular season. I agree. However, I also know some things, one is that if there were no playoffs there would be no interest in any games this final weekend. Instead, 11 teams (that's 11 out of 15 people) are playing meaningful games, important games, games that could turn the season on its head. Six of the eight playoff slots have been decided and still, every single game in the final weekend (including last night's of course) is crucial to one or both teams. That my friends is an argument right there for a meaningful post-season tournament. I have written before that the Regular Season Champion needs to be called that, (instead of the nominally meaningless Supporter's Shield) and that is an argument to note. That team, even though it's supported by the execrable Nordecke bunch, should be celebrated and awarded a meaningful trophy. But do not under any circumstances eliminate the postseason tournament. The MLS Cup winner is also a fitting championship and the two honors should sit side by side.

So that's my little soapbox moment, which deserves a separate discussion all of its own. Time to move onto the weekend, and these meaningful games I profess to love so much.

Last week: 3-5
Year to date: 87-121 (.418 or 18 games over blind chance)

TORONTO FC at RBNY. 2-1 Reds Toronto books passage into the postseason with this win, the final one at that awful pit known as Giants Stadium, thus ensuring that Costa Rica's Saprissa Stadium is far and away the worst soccer pitch in the New World. Now, being that this is the final Giants Stadium game, and that Red Bulls are trying to bury this awful season, they will come out inspired, or at least as inspired as they can be. But that turnip can only bleed so much. RBNY will take the early lead and then TFC will return with an improbable goal brought about by RBNY's own incomparable incompetence. Then I fully expect Big Game Dwayne to send his Reds over the top and into the playoffs. (I want so badly for TFC to play the Crew in the first round just because those games are always bloodbaths.) The not-altogether-healthy Stefan Frei steps up big.

(That)D(amned)CU(nited) at WIZARDS. 1-1 Draw Personally, I think Tom Soehn will have a very long and enjoyable offseason, unemployed though he will be as DCU expires with a whimper at the hands of the playing-for-pride Wizards. And just to add insult to injury, I think KC will score late with a goal past Steve Cronin (How bad is Kocic if Cronin is an improvement?) to sink DCU's hopes. And you know, this might just be the best thing for that organization, which is too good to be in this situation.

RAPIDS at RSL 2-2 Colorado Conor Casey will be a beast in this game as Colorado books passage through to the postseason with the draw. RSL salvages some pride with a late goal to draw level, but the Rapids' quality does exactly what they need. Jason Kreis, who deserves to stay coach of this team, will have a long time over the offseason to find out what he needs to do to transition this squad back into the championship contender they were in 2008. Unfortunately, with this draw, Colorado finish with the eighth seed and face Columbus for that great Col v Col match-up instead o the blood battle that Col(umbus) v Tor would make.

FC FRISCO at SOUNDERS FC 3-2 Seattle The Battle of the Dreams. And this, my friends, is where the dallas' dream comes to an end for dallas for a lot of reasons, the first of which is that it's running smack into the face of bigger dream. It has been a truly amazing season for the Seattles, with a USOC trophy, a playoff berth, a chance on the final day of the season to win the West, 30K in attendance every game at home, etc. etc. I hate them grudgingly for all of that, but I'm also realistic enough to see that a final regular season home game with all of that going for them is going to be too much for a Schellas Hyndman coached team, with Superman Cunningham or no. Also, the truly awful Baldomero Toledo will be reffing this game, the same guy who gifted Seattle with that goal that Chabala knocked off the line back in July. That's mojo that Seattle doesn't need, but will enjoy. I think Cunningham will definitely score, but Dallas will fall short here.

EARTHQUAKES at GALAXY. 2-2 Draw I just have to tell you that there is no way on Earth I can be objective in assessing this game. For the Naranjaverse to evolve as it needs to, the Gals MUST lose or draw this game. The thing is, San Jose is a truly awful, awful side, not RBNY awful, but still, you know, B.A.D. Now San Jose helped us last week as much as they could by drawing with Chivas at the HDC, so is it too much to ask for them to do it again? I'm not asking for anything superhuman here, just a draw against their most-hated rivals. Let's face it, as any Bay Area person can tell you, screwing LA is enough motivation no matter the situation. Well, beating them will screw LA the most, but I'm not too sure that's possible. I mean, they're not Rubin Kazan here. But they are a Bay Area side with a chance to really deliver a nasty blow to a SoCal team. So I'm relying on that to beat Donovan, that English guy and Ricketts. My head says there's no way that a team with the quality of LA, in the most important game they've played since the 2005 final, should lose or draw here. But my heart, the organ in my body that is 100 percent Orange, will NOT be overruled. Go San Jose, you bastards, GO!

REVOLUTION at CREW 1-1 Draw And here's where you see the end of the road for Steve NIcol's playoff run. Mister3D and I have spoken often how much we respect what he's accomplished, but also how much we hate the way his teams play, chippy, defensive and quick counter attacks. To be truthful, you can't but respect Shalrie Joseph and those guys, but the Revs have just been snakebit all year, the final blow coming when Steve Ralston went down with that horrific injury. For them to make the playoffs would be amazing considering, but they just would not be able to advance far and provide just a simple, simple opponent for whomever they face. The Crew, on the other hand, have looked nothing like the worldbeaters they were in August and September, but that could be attributed to a number of facts, the main being the early date at which they earned their berth. So I think they'll do just enough to keep from losing at home and then put their focus on the playoffs.

And finally:

DYNAMO at las chivitas 1-0 Orange Dynamo will be without Ching and Ashe (thank you Rayados), and Cam Weaver and Ricardo Clark are nursing knee injuries. However, I still think this team has enough to deny the Amerigoats and come out of the HDC with the top spot in the West. Now, to be sure, things can happen to give us that second leg of the Western semis at home with just a draw here. But Seattle would have to tie or lose to FCD at home to open that window, which I don't expect to happen. So just for once this season you Orange, win and make it simple for all of us. Might this be the game where Luis Angel Landin finds his communication with Brad Davis, Stuart Holden and, most importantly, Brian Mullan? Here's the lineup I would like to see:

Landin-Weaver
Davis-Holden-Clark-Mullan
Barrett-Cameron-Boswell-Hainault
Onstad

But if Rico and Cam can't go, how's this one:

Landin-Thompson
Davis-Holden-Cameron-Mullan
Barrett-Robinson-Boswell-Hainault
Onstad

Option B is not as good as Option A up top, but to beat Chivas, the strength will have to come in the midfield and a tough as nails back line. Option B might just be a tougher back line than A with ERob in there. And if Thompson can hold and create space for Landin and Holden on dangerousrun, it might just work. We'll see. Just win baby. Just win. Read more!

Six on the undercard and the Main Event

Just in case you needed any help getting fired up for Sunday. And if you're looking for further inspiration there's this:




But before we get to Sunday, we'll spend some time on the weekend undercard:

Last week: 1-3
Year to date: 84-116 (.420 or 17 games over blind chance)

REAL SALT LAKE at TORONTO FC. 2-2 Draw So RSL defeats NYRB late Wednesday night (Q: Were they showing the US game on the screens at Rio Tinto before that game started? And if not, why does RSL hate America?), a result I predicted, which isn't anything to be all that psyched about. I mean, RSL at home is mediocre, while NYRB without JPA can only dream of mediocrity. Now RSL heads north of the border to a TFC team that watched its playoff dream go on life support when they let San Jose draw late in stoppage time last week (screwing with my prediction in the process like they didn't even care). Simply put, both teams truly NEED full points here. Anything less and you can cross them both off your playoff predictions. However, Toronto just seems to come short all too often this season, while RSL is woeful on the road. So, my pick is they'll go over the Reichenbach Falls together, though unlike Holmes, neither will be seen again.

FIRE at REVOLUTION. 2-1 New England If Chicago wins this game, they are in the playoffs and guaranteed to host the return leg in the first round against whomever they play. The Fire are a very good, very dangerous team that is set right on the verge of a truly awesome run. And hence, I am predicting that not only will the Fire get doused in Foxboro, but it will be costly (maybe with an injury) and painful (late strike from Shalrie Joseph or a bad, or rather, standard call from ref Jorge Gonzales). Nothing has come easy for the Fire this season, so why should playoff qualification? As for the Revs, without Stevie R, the team is a shadow of its former self. But the Fire will just not be able to crack Fortress Nicol.

CREW at DC UNITED. 2-0 Crew. Ben Olsen and Chris Pontius are out for DC, while Emmanuel Ekpo misses for the Crewtures.DC is also missing Quaranta and Namoff to injuries and has Milos Kocic in goal. DC, I know you guys are technically still in the playoff race, but let's face it. United has lost three in a row, all at home, and this game will be over by halftime. The only question is whether that will also apply to Tom Soehn's reign as DC boss.

RAPIDS at FC FRISCO. 1-1 Draw. You know, I know that FC dallas is all f'shizzle about their playoff run, and Jeff Cunningham yadda yadda yadda, and they're only two points out of the playoffs and they're at home in front of their tens of "fans," and the Rapids are missing two players to suspension. Yeah freakin' yeah. But you know what, spare me. The team is mediocrity personified. But then again, what do the Rapids have? Conor Casey, that's who, despite his completely ridiculous and worthless miss in the 9th minute at RFK Wednesday (how great would that have been?). The only question about Dallas' run is when will it end? Well, reality is here and Colorado will administer the paddle here. The draw ought to end that playoff run and at the same time complicate Colorado's.

SOUNDERS at WIZARDS. 2-0 Seattle Josh Wollf and Davy Arnaud are probable while nursing injuries, but it won't be enough. Seattle secures a berth here with a win and pulls into a (highly, highly temporary) tie atop the West. Jaqua and Montero both score off feeds from Ljungberg.

EARTHQUAKES at las chivitas 2-1 San Jose. It's no secret what result I want to happen here. I want the Earthquakes to drill these guys, robbing them of all hope and confidence, doubting not only their skills as players but continued existence as human beings. I want goat meat served from all tables in California up and down the coast, instilling the San Jose organization with a heretofore missing sense of optimism for the future. What I expect to get, however, is something totally different. San Jose is beyond awful, and while their late goal salvaged some pride for them in Canuckistan last week, I just am not sure they can pull that off against a Preki-coached side in the running for the top spot in the West. One ray of hope, take a look at this injury report (notables highlighted): CHIVAS USA - OUT: DF Jim Curtin (L ankle surgery); MF Kevin Harmse (R knee tendonitis); GK Dan Kennedy (R knee surgery); FW Ante Razov (R ankle tendonitis); MF Bojan Stepanovic (R knee injury); MF Sasha Victorine (concussion); QUESTIONABLE: GK Lance Parker (R quad strain); FW Maicon Santos (R knee injury); GK Zach Thornton (lower back strain); PROBABLE: FW Justin Braun (lower back strain); MF Paulo Nagamura (L foot contusion); FW Jesús Padilla (R ankle sprain) ... SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES - OUT: MF Darren Huckerby (R hip surgery); MF Andre Luiz (L knee sprain); DF Jason Hernandez (L ankle fracture/sprain); FW Chris Wondolowski (R knee sprain); FW Cornell Glen (R knee sprain) So who's healthy in goal for Chivas anyway? That's three keepers on that list! So I'm going with my heart here and picking San Jose. Screw my record. Screw what's probable. And screw the goatlings San Jose.

THE MAIN EVENT

GALAXY at DYNAMO. 3-2 Orange The Dynamo are going to miss seriously Corey Ashe and Cam Weaver, and who knows why Chingy did not dress for either US game, and that is the last worrisome thing you will read from me. This is going to be a game for the ages. I firmly expect that Landon Donovan will be a beast, that that English guy who's name escapes me will be delivering dead-on balls and that Donovan Ricketts will be amazing in goal. And then this is what I also believe: 30,000+ people will spur Dynamo on to a crushing win. Davis will be in full delivery mode, putting in two perfect crosses for goals to add to another one from Holden on a set-piece to rip the hearts out of those pretenders. Like the penalty save against Conor Casey earlier this season, this game will be the spur to a six-game unbeaten run (7 if you count the Isidro Metapan game next week) that ends only because the season does, with the reigning Rothenberg Trophy winners holding up the Anschutz model in Seattle. Man of the Match for Dynamo in this game: Johnny Rocco, (aka Eddie Robinson).

And just in case you guys don't get the message:

Read more!

Three alive, the weekend in MLS

(I know that picture has nothing to do with this post, but thought it was great!)


Wow, is MLS actually taking (gasp!) an international break this weekend? Not really, but only three games are scheduled after Dallas' completely undeserved win courtesy of that clear offsides from both Dax McCarty and Jeff Cunningham in San Jose the other day. Now I want little d to qualify, but only if Dynamo get to play them in the first round and kick their teeth in for them.

Have very little time to blog today, but here in quick order are my picks for the weekend:

(Whoops, time out of time here. In San Pedro de Sula, the US puts past performances behind them and secures passage through to South Africa with a 2-1 win at Honduras. Charlie Davies and Landon Donovan both score, with at least one on an assist from Goalden Holden.)

Last week: 2-4
Year to date: 82-113 (.421 or 17 games over blind chance)

EARTHQUAKES at TORONTO. 3-1 Reds. Toronto will keep their slim playoff hopes alive with this win. They've got everything going for them here. San Jose just lost a gutter on a phantom noncall at home to Frisco, which officially eliminated them from the playoffs. That game was on the west coast on Wednesday, while this one is in a tough place to play against a quality contending team that needs a win and in Canada to boot (eh). There may be a path to victory for San Jose here, but I don't see it, unless, that is, the Reds underwhelm, which wouldn't be the first time!

CREW at (Dance, Dance) REVOLUTION. 2-1 Revs Wow, suddenly is the Supporter's Shield a race again? Crew are missing Rogers, Heydude and Moreno to international callups, as well as Danny O'Rourke to a suspension. As long as Shalrie Joseph has room to operate, the Revs are highly dangerous. The Revs are at home and in desperate need of points for a berth, while the Crew are shorthanded and playing on the fake stuff away. The Revs are going to seriously miss Stevie R, but with Stevie N as coach in a crucial late-season match, I'm picking them.

WIZARDS at CHIVAS USA. 1-1 Draw Hmmm, both teams are on late-season undefeated streaks. Both need points. Chivas is at home and teh Wizards' run is somewhat improbable. Still, KC has a lot of positives to take out of last week here at Robertson, while Chivas took advantage of a DCU squad in free fall and with Worf Wicks out for the season. I'm thinking the Wizards will either draw or win here, but right now, for some reason, I'm picking draw. Read more!

Playing the (playoff) slots and weekend picks

Wow, and here I thought with Shalrie Joseph still playing and (reasonably) healthy, the Revs would be OK and make the playoffs, even without Steve Ralston.

And then came the Debacle at the Cotton Bowl, losing 1-0 and being run around and off the field by FC Dallas (FC DALLAS!) Wednesday night. You know, even though some prominent Houstonians are promoting the unlikely Frisco Playoff Push, I really don't see it. So here are Martek's official predictions of qualifiers for the MLS Playoffs:

The Easy Ones: Crew, Dynamo, Galaxy, Fire

Anyone can pick those four. It's the next four that will separate the winners from the losers, the true visionaries of the future from the ones who will level a curse with their predictions and single-handedly be the cause for elimination and thus dashing the hopes of the faithful. So firmly hoping I'm a member of the latter, here's my prediction:

FC Dallas

OK, OK, now my real predictions for the final four qualifiers. (And I'm not saying I'm not a curse-leveler here, just that I am trying my best to tell you what I really think.)

Six contenders for the four final slots: Rapids, las chivitas, Sounders, Revolution, (That)D(amned)CU(nited), Toronto FC

Still alive but fugeddaboudit: RSL, FC Frisco, Wizards.

Here's the remaining schedule and points so far for the Still-alive Six

Rapids (39): host Revs, at FCD, at RSL
Chivas (38): at DCU, host KC, host San Jose, at Fire, host Dynamo
Sounders (38): at Crew, at KC, host Dallas
Revolution (37): at Colo, host Crew, host Fire, at Crew
DCU (36): host Chivas, host Crew, at KC
Toronto (35): host San Jose, host RSL, at NYRB

Now you may wonder why I'm saying that Toronto, at 35 points, has a chance while RSL, at 34, FCD, at 33, and KC, at 31,, have no chance. Well, I have two reasons, one is this guy and the other is that schedule. The two worst teams in the league and one of the worse road teams in MLS history, and I think TFC comes down the stretch with at least seven points and possibly all nine. The only worry here is that TFC won't be playing, and thus won't be knocking off, any of the teams ahead of them. This could be the fatal flaw, but then again, I think after it's all done, the points total will be:

Rapids (46):
Toronto (44)
Sounders (43)
Chivas (42)
DCU (41)
Revolution (40)

Not only that, but when Dynamo destroy Chivas on the final day of the season, it still won't matter as with five games left, the Amerigoats will barely make it in over DCU. And my favorite thing about this prediction is that for the first time in awhile (ever?), there will be more Western Conference teams than East.

So chime in here, what are your predictions?

On to the weekend.

Last week: 3-5
Year to date: 80-109 (.423 or 17 games over blind chance)

FIRE at GALAXY: 1-1 Draw Becks will be playing and Blanco may not, but I think the Fire are getting it together now. I still think the Gals will not lose this one at home, and the Fire seem to have trouble closing out games, but overall, I'm seeing this as a draw between two teams fighting for playoff position.

CHIVAS USA at DC UNITED: 2-1 CUSA The win in CONCACAF propels DC and gives them hope, but in the end, it won't be enough for that team. But Milos Kocic, you are no Josh Wicks, and while that means you may have to spend less in anger management classes over the long run, for now, it means that you cannot lead DCU to a win here. (This game will haunt the Black and Red all offseason, especially if, nay when, my predictions above come true.)

SOUNDERS at CREW. 1-1 Draw Hear that? That's the sound of the Crew putting the finishing touches on the Supporter's Shield race, and at Sigi Schmid's expense. NO WAIT!! Ljungberg sends an awesome ball through to Montero in the 92nd minute, beating Hesmer and Seattle draws this game for a crucial point they need in playoff race!! You heard it here first.

REVOLUTION at RAPIDS. 1-0 Colorado New England, you can't beat Dallas in midweek at the Cotton Bowl and think you can sneak by the inconsistent Rapids? Without Steve Ralston? Well, Preston Burpo is in goal for the Rapids, while you guys have Matt Reis, so you might just have a shot there. But then again, Reis isn't going to score for you there, so put those hopes behind you because you're going down in flames here.

NYRB at EARTHQUAKES. 0-0 Draw Oh. My. God. Back away. And not slowly either. Scooby, LET'S GET OUTTA HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WIZARDS at DYNAMO. 3-1 Orange My main prediction here is that Kei Kamara will shoot, and shoot and shoot some more, and he will not put a single one on frame. I love Cobra Kei, don't get me wrong, but I find it hard to believe he's going to be all that focused. Remember how poorly he played against San Jose when he was in Orange? Expect to see that Kamara Sunday. Meanwhile, Holden, Landin and Weaver all score for Dynamo, who are never seriously threatened. Read more!

Tipping over: Yallop, the U-20's and the weekend pickfest

This week has me thinking about tipping points. No, not Malcolm Gladwell's book, but rather coaches, teams and the playoff races.

You know, before watching the highlights from the Denver leg of the San Jose/Colorado home and home Wednesday night, I wondered what could possibly go worse for the EQuakes this year.

Now I know. Losing a lead on a stoppage time penalty is gutting enough one time, but for it to happen to you two weeks in a row (and the second time more than deservedly), you just have to wonder if San Jose shouldn't just put us all out of their misery and walk into a shooting range with targets on their uniforms and get it all over with.

This is a team that looks about as organized as an anarchy convention. It makes me think about just how far Frank Yallop has fallen. From winning two titles in San Jose and being hailed as the savior of the Canadian National Team to presiding over the destruction of the 2005 champ LA Galaxy, the GM-ship of Alexi Lalas, the opening rounds of Cirque d'Goldenballs, a bright ray of sunshine of an escape back to the Bay Area, dismal results at Quakes 3.0, another brief ray of sunshine from Huckerby, and now 2009, the worst year yet.

Don't get me wrong. I think Yallop has proven himself as one of the top coaches in the American game, but there seems to be some kind of spectacular rain cloud that follows him around these days. Hopefully he'll be able to escape it before it consumes his career.

One thought, if John Spencer gets a well-deserved manager gig next year, perhaps Yallop comes here to rejoin best bud Dom Kinnear, but with roles reversed from when Frankie hired Dom and lured him into coaching in SJ. Just a thought.

Moving right along to the weekend, my No. 1 footy interest this weekend is in Egypt, following Danny Cruz and the U-20 US team at the U-20 World Cup. The mini-Nats will play Germany on ESPN2 and Galavision at 9 a.m. Saturday morning. Then they face Cameroon on Tuesday at 11:45 am, also on ESPN2 & Galavision, and South Korea at the same time Friday, Oct. 2. You can read more about the tourney here and here.

I don't know enough about the U-20 scene to handicap this tournament, but I do know the US has generally done well there and the team looks good. So, Go USA!!


Back Stateside, after having an absolutely dismal two weeks, my prediction record improved somewhat. The bleeding has stopped, thanks in large measure to Brad Davis, Josh Wolff and David Beckham. Now with the local side taking the weekend off, I can take a better look around the league with these games. I missed the Wednesday night game, which is probably for the better (for my sanity's sake at least), but the weekend looks to be an intriguing list of fixtures, with one in particular.

Last week: 3-4
Overall mark: 77-104 (.425 or 17 games above blind chance)

GALAXY at CREW. 2-2 Draw According to this and this, Becks will miss this game with a possibly suspicious injury. But I really don't think that's going to matter as nothing gets Landon Donovan stoked more than beating down a good team. Of course, the last four points the Crew got should have been only a single one if not for the fact that the Crew go to ground when you breathe too hard in their general direction, then perhaps a LAG win is the most likely result. (Really, Crewtures should be hanging their heads in shame when Lenhart goes in with a flying kick and then has a penalty called against the guy he slammed into last week? That play is the poster child of MLS refs’ inadequacies. The main reason I'm picking this as a draw (Other than the fact that that is the result that most helps Dynamo. I won't lie.) though is that I am a big believer in Schelotto. Dodgy PK calls notwithstanding, the Crew are good. But so is LAG. This just points to a draw for me.

SOUNDERS at REVOLUTION. 2-1 New England The bad times continue for Seattle. The team is having trouble scoring at home (four consecutive Zero Hero performances), but on the road, Seattle has serious problems. The Revs, on the other hand, are making a move in the East, and even though Shalrie Joseph is nursing a sore hip, I fully expect New England to hold serve in Foxboro.

RAPIDS at WIZARDS. 2-1 Kansas City This would be somewhat of an upset, but playing two games in four days for Colorado is going to be tough, and Peter Vermes really does have KC playing better. Cobra Kei is looking to score his first for the Wiz, and I think he gets it at Preston Burpo expense. Also, the Rapids just seem to have a thing about playing in KC. According to the MLS preview, the Rapids haven't won there since the final meeting in 2002, a span of eight games. The Wizards are 6-0-2 in those games, and also won a playoff game in that stretch. So who am I to buck history?

REAL SALT LAKE at FC DALLAS. 2-1 Frisco The previous post linked to Steve Davis' wonderful piece about all that's wrong in Frisco. (Read Davis' blog post here if you missed it.) However, RSL's defense is highly suspect to say the least, and with Jamison Olave serving his suspension for his takedown of Brad Davis last week, I just think that the candystripers have an edge here, even with four players at the U20 World Cup in Egypt.

TORONTO FC at FIRE. 3-1 Chicago Well, this should just about do it for the Reds' playoff hopes. The Fire are still steaming, and rightfully so, about the way their win against the Crew was stolen away from them with that awful penalty call last week. Even though Chicago generally doesn't play well at home, they still play better than Toronto does on the road. If these predictions hold true, then Chicago will be only one point behind the Crew and still very much in the Supporter's Shield and Eastern Conference race. Don't forget the Fire when thinking ahead to the playoffs. The team is dangerous.

RED BULL NEW YORK at Chivas USA. 1-0 las chivitas The Amerigoats barely escaped with the draw in Seattle last week, while RBNY is still pretty awful, though they have been playing better. This game could go either way, but I really don't think it'll be a draw with New York's suspect defense. And with Wolyniec out, I don't see JPA getting any space at all to score. So, over to you Chivas.

EARTHQUAKES at DC UNITED. 2-1 DCU I think San Jose might just lose out the rest of the season. I wish Dynamo played them again this year. As for DC, you would think that a weak opponent like this would be just what the doctor ordered, but nothing ever comes easy for that team. Watch them baaaarely escape with this win. Read more!

MLS predictions: Out of the Fog and back to winning

The Houston Dynamo are not the only ones suffering through a run of bad form in recent days. I need to come in out of the fog as well.

Three weeks ago, I was swimming along with a .452 prediction rate at 70-85, feeling pretty good about myself at 19 games above just throwing darts blindfold at a board. Since then, well, perhaps it would have been good for someone to give me a red card as well. In the last three weeks, I have gone 3-15 (2-5, 0-3 and 1-7), hardly the stuff that legends are made of.

(Of course, who was the person that predicted that FC Dallas (!) of all teams would drop a six spot on the LA Galaxy in the Home Depot Center or previously moribund las chivitas would destroy the New England Revulsion? Or, or, or... Not that I'm blaming others for my own suckitude, mind you. HAH!)


Anyway, I have six weeks to turn this puppy around, and hopefully that will begin this weekend. I need some kinda shot in the arm, and maybe Dynamo coming home for the first time in a month this weekend can return some of my mojo. Though, to be truthful, if I could just get a crystal ball that didn't have all of these hexagonal marks all over it, maybe I could see the future just a little clearer!

On to the weekend:

Last week: 1-7
Overall: 74-100 (.425 or 16 games over blind chance)

REVOLUTION at RED BULL. 2-1 New England OK, OK, Maybe I was being a bit bitter when I made that Revulsion crack above. No player makes more difference for New England than Shalrie Joseph (not even the estimable Stevie Ralston I would wager) and he was missing last week serving a red card suspension. This week, ShalJo is back and that ought to be enough for the Revs against NYRB. To be fair, New York has been playing better (even though they screwed the pooch against KC last week), and this is something of a rivalry game, so you really never know in those types of situations. The two teams do NOT like each other. But still, New England ought to have enough, even without the suspended Edgardus Jankauskuskuskuskuskus (his real name), and Wells Thompson to come home with full points.

RAPIDS at EARTHQUAKES 2-1 Colorado Hmmm. The Rapids play four of their final six games on the road. San Jose hasn't played since August. Colorado is without the thug Mastroeni (though perhaps the scum should learn from this Mastroeni about hitting someone). San Jose has made several roster moves recently and key players hurt. This one is hard to predict, except, oh, Conor Casey is playing? OK then, Colorado takes this one handily.

CHIVAS USA at SOUNDERS. 2-0 Seattle I'm sure the Amerigoats are all psyched up after pounding the Revs 2-0 last week. But I'll have to see more from them before I believe that their downward momentum has been reversed. A road win or draw at Qwest Field would convince me, but I just don't see it happening. Seattle is at full strength, coming off an impressive road win and very much in the Western title and playoff hunt. Both teams should share the same sense of urgency, but I think Seattle at home has more ability to do something about it than Chivas.

FC DALLAS at WIZARDS. 2-2 Draw Boy, what strange team this FC Frisco squad has turned out to be this year. From absolutely horrible to a pair of huge goal explosions, denying the Galaxy the top spot in the West with a six-pack of a road win with the last one, and total stink-up-the-place-itude in between. I have no idea what to make of that team. However, I also know what Kei Kamara can do when focused and motivated, which I assume he will be in his first game in KC. So I think this one is a total toss-up. My biggest prediction, this game will be unwatchable for long stretches.

TORONTO FC at GALAXY. 2-0 LAG Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Gals surrendered six goals to Frisco and Toronto took out a playoff-contender last week. You think that is going to happen again? I'm going with the safe bet here. Though this game has one of my favorite injury lines: FW Alecko Eskandarian (head). OOOH, my brain hurtzz.

REAL SALT LAKE at DYNAMO. 3-1 Orange Sometimes, when you reach rock bottom, you realize there is nowhere to go but up, and so you do. In the previous post, I went on at length about Dynamo's attempts to get out from under a blood red sky they seem to be under. And I would feel confident in their ability to accomplish same, but a quick look at the game preview shows me that the execrable Baldomero Toledo will be the ref Saturday night, so all bets are off. Still, my feeling is that the Kamara trade, Cam Weaver's return and a general feeling of homecoming will carry the Dynamo to the win here. That, and the fact that RSL is beyond horrible on the road. Just remember guys, 11 on, 11 off.

CREW at FIRE. 3-2 Chicago I think this is going to be a really good, really tough (maybe kinda chippy) legendary game. It was just a few weeks ago that I thought Chicago was about to be in the midst of a Chivas-like topple. And I am still not convinced that the team will go anywhere. However, Brian McBride is back. Sr. White is back. John Thorrington is back. Well, two out of three ain't bad y'know. Columbus is playing right now like the defending champion and the teams have tied in their two games this season, but I think Chicago knows this is the statement game, that the squad is for real as a title contender instead of just a talented pretender. Read more!

Emerging out of the vortex

Not even the Guardian of Forever can bring me back far enough in the past for this it seems. Man, do the last two weeks feel like an eternity or what? It seems like forever since Dynamo last played a game, instead of the two weeks since the loss to Colorado.

Hopefully, plenty has changed over that time, and if you need a positive sign, there's this from the Boz' Facebook page on Sept. 4:

Prolly the hardest 2 days of practice I have had since joining the Dynamo.

So apparently Dom and Spence have been working the guys hard these past two weeks and we'll see this weekend what they have to show for it. I know for a fact that this is a team that generally saves the best for the stretch run, but it doesn't get much tougher in MLS right now than a road game in Columbus (the half-strength Crew's loss to NYRB there in August notwithstanding).

As for those Dynamen who did not get much of a layoff, namely Brian Ching, the Goalden One and Super Rico, as a Dynafan myself, I couldn't be happier with the amount of work they received in the El Salvador and T&T wins. Ching is never better than when he's pissed off, and not getting any significant PT in those wins is bound to gnaw at him. Stewie barely played in T&T and should be well-rested and ready for Columbus. Rico, meanwhile, had a workmanlike effort in T&T before blowing in his howitzer of a golazo and did not even suit up for the El Salvador game (another of Bob Bradley's mystery lineup decisions). So while I was worrying two weeks ago that they would resume MLS play tired, I now see my concerns were unfounded. Nice that.

Speaking of World Cup Qualifying, all I have to say is that I'm glad we don't play Mexico anymore. Talk about a woken up squad. Even with the subpar performance against Honduras in Azteca this past week, El Tri is studly right now and easily playing the best of any team in CONCACAF. With games left only against El Salvador and the Soca Warriors, while the US has a road game in Honduras and home against Costa Rica, I fully expect Mexico to win the Hexagonal and the US to finish second. That is unless our Nats come out with a monster game in Honduras. We'll see.

Now, on to the weekend. I love the stretch run in MLS. I wish dearly that the Supporter's Shield was a bigger deal, which I don't think will happen until you change its name. The season champ should be called the Season Champion, while the postseason minitourney should stay MLS Cup. That being said, I also like the postseason tourney, the playoffs, whatever you want to call it. This period from now until mid-November is a lot of fun, and if it gets colored Orange, even more so.

Last week: 0-3 (Yes, you read it right. My first ever 0-fer week. Oh the shame!)
Overall: 73-93 (.440, or 18 games over blind chance)

WIZARDS at DC UNITED last Wednesday In my last post on Wednesday, you'll see that I predicted a DCU win and as it turns out I was right, so I'm already ahead of last week. Baby steps.

RAPIDS at TORONTO FC. 1-0 Colorado In the back end of the home-and-home, the situation could not be more dire for the Reds. Adrian Serioux is out with a red, Dichio just retired and de Guzman isn't there yet, Toronto is falling behind in the playoff chase and what's worse, Baldomero Toledo is the ref of this game. (RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!) That last one affects both teams, but I think Toronto's only hope is that De Rosario just goes wild. Haven't seen it yet, so I've got to give it to the team playing well.

WIZARDS at RED BULL NEW YORK 2-1 NY The win against New England and the close loss to DC notwithstanding, I still am not believing that KC is all that. Add to that the fact that they will be one of the only MLS teams this weekend not rested and I see New York's resurgence continuing.

SOUNDERS at DC UNITED 1-1 Draw This is going to be a slugfest. The USOC championship game did not end well for DC and that is not a team that has responded well to adversity this year. Not only that, Seattle is (Yes, I'm going to say it), a chippy, bordering on dirty team, and in this contest they will be playing with a collective chip on their shoulders. Someone (or perhaps more than one someone) is going to get carried off the field in this one.

FIRE at RSL. 2-1 Chicago RSL is already shorthanded with Morales and now without Beckerman and Grabavoy, who are suspended, their lack of depth will be exposed. I'm not sure Chicago is good enough to blow out this team on the road, but they're definitely better than RSL.

FC DALLAS at LA GALAXY 1-0 LAG I hate to write that as it would mean that the Gals, no matter how temporary, would leapfrog both Dynamo and Crew in the Supporter's Shield race, but come on now, what other prediction even makes sense. Eskandarian, Buddle and Kovalenko are out for the Gals, but Frisco is just not a very good team right now. Maybe they'll pull it together and the resuscitation of Cunningham will carry them, but if I had money on this game, it's very simple who I would take.

REVOLUTION at CHIVAS USA. 2-0 New England This will be the point at which it all unravels for las chivitas. Galindo and Saragosa are out for the Goatlings, while the Revs are without Shalrie Joseph on suspension, but this hurts Chivas more than the Revs. Here's a fun fact from MLSnet: Chivas USA have not defeated the Revolution since June 30, 2007, a stretch of four matches. NE has won the last three meetings between the teams, with shutouts in the last two, including the 2-0 win July 19 this year. Make those numbers five, four and possibly three.

DYNAMO at CREW. 2-1 Houston Brad Davis is out, which means the midfield delivery might be suspect for the Orange, but then again, maybe that brings us Landin's first start (Dale Escorpion!). My head tells me that this is a draw for Houston, but my heart says to go with the win for the boys. If Dynamo wins this game, they'll deserve the Supporter's Shield. Read more!

Three and a Big One. Weekend picks

So I was reading an excellent piece from Steve Davis (link here) about the US-El Salvador game tomorrow at Big Sandy. Davis speculates about line-up options for the US and also includes this little tidbit:

(Brian) Ching is almost sure to be in the lineup. His ability to rattle around and make things happen by winning second balls will be critical against what is sure to be a crowded Salvadoran defensive third.

He also mentions that Rico Clark and Goalden Holden are likely to see time. And it doesn't take a genius to see that all three will play as well at Hasley Crawford Stadium in T&T on Wednesday.

So the point I'm winding around to is that while it is nice for Dynamo to have this week off to get set for a serious September-November run (more on those in a sec) and rest, three crucial cogs in the Orange Machine won't be taking any rest at all. It all goes back to that eternal soccer conflict of Club v. Country. In a tortured fashion, I usually wind up on the side of club emotionally. Let's face it, I frequently watch US games that involve Dynamo players and wonder how it will affect Dynamo, but I rarely ever see a Dynamo game and wonder how it'll affect the US MNT. Does this mean I did not scream myself nearly hoarse when Charlie Davies found net at Azteca? Hell no. I'm just confessing my sins as an American that's all.

So, that being said, I also think the US will roll over El Salvador and Benedict Arnold Alvarez in Utah. (And no, my admission of a C v. C conflict up there does not DQ me from making that comment about Arturo, who dumped my alma mater St. Thomas HS to attend Katy Mayde Creek. If that guy goes all Giuseppe Rossi on us, his record of ever having attended STHS will be purged. Take that!) The key will be, as Davis pointed out in his piece, to get through ES' defensive shell because you know almost no member of that team will venture beyond midfield. So pinpoint passing will be key. That's why I think Rico might get subbed early in the second half if it's still 0-0 and also why I included that piece about the Flyin' Hawaiian above.

The US will take this game 2-0 handily, though there will be a few scary moments, especially with Onyewu sitting out.

As for the Wednesday game in Warneristan, check this out, courtesy of duNord:

Nine USA players are carrying Yellow Card cautions into the El Salvador match, meaning their next Yellow will trigger a one-game suspension: Jozy Altidore, Carlos Bocanegra, Conor Casey, Steve Cherundolo, Ricardo Clark, Jay DeMerit, Clint Dempsey, Donovan, and Benny Feilhaber.

That is muy mucho amarilla. But, on the Orange side, if Rico sees yellow, he's that much fresher for the Supporter's Shield battle at Columbus Sept. 13. So at least we have that going for us, whoever us is at any given moment.

On to MLS play, there are three games this weekend, with very little impact on Dynamo's fortunes. Maybe in terms of playoff foes, but that's about it. And two of the games are being played AT THE EXACT SAME TIME as the US/El Salvador game. I have written frequently in the past that I think this is a disgrace on MLS' part. You're telling me that these games could not have all been played on either Friday night, Saturday afternoon or Sunday? Three lousy games and two of them have to run opposite the United States? No need to continue this rant as it has fallen on deaf ears from the mouths of various and sundry in MLS HQ for years now, but the point has to be made every so often that when the National Team plays, everyone else on the pyramid stops what they're doing and watches. This is a simple lesson and they need to learn it.

On to the picks

Last week: 2-5
Overall: 73-90 (.448 or 19 games over blind chance)

WIZARDS at REVOLUTION 2-0 New England The Revs have the best record in the league since mid June and, let's be honest, do you see any reason why they wouldn't win at home against a Wizards team that has completely quit? You fire the coach because you can't fire the players, but Onalfo wasn't really the reason for KC's demise. The guy now coaching, Vermes, put that team on the field, and now he's reaping his own private whirlwind. The Wizards have an, ahem, broken wand.

DC UNITED at FC DISASTROUS. 2-0 Frisco This would normally be a tough one to predict, but I think DCU's loss in the US Open Cup, especially the Wicks incident, is going to haunt that squad. DC hasn't been an especially brilliant road team, and while Frisco is worse without Drew Moor than with him (think about THAT for a second), they clearly are playing with nothing to lose. DCU is the better team, but I think they will not be focused and Frisco will slip in there. I don't normally pick Frisco to win anything at all (and I'm usually right!), but this time, I'm thinking it's going to fall right for them. The applause, er, the few claps, er, the echoes will be deafening.

TORONTO FC at RAPIDS. 2-1 Reds I finally saw the hit that Mastroeni put on Hainault last week. Wow. Rarely do I get intensely ticked off at something that happened several days ago, but seeing that little punk writhing on the ground, clearly faking the whole thing since he had just leveled someone, just sent me over the edge. I dearly, dearly hope we get to play the Crapids in the first round of the playoffs to administer a little frontier justice. Two games is not enough for that hit. He should be banned for the season. So is that emotion coloring my pick here? Maybe. But let's consider the situation a bit. Colorado is out all four Cs (Colin Clark and Conor "Wisdom Teeth" Casey), out that punk I mentioned above, and plugging in the newly-acquired Drew Moor in place of Ugo Ihemelu, a step down. Toronto is rested and ready and missing only Amado Guevara. I think TFC will get a rare road win here and restart their push for a playoff berth. One other factor: DDR will be a beast in this game. He loves playing in Colorado. Read more!

Nine weeks to go and counting

So it's happened once again, CONCACAF Champions League play distracted me from MLS and I missed a midweek game, RSL's 4-0 dismantling of Chivas USA. I think these are the soccer gods' balancing the ledger in a way. Last week, the game I missed I would have picked the other direction. This time, the game I missed I would indeed have picked correctly. So now the books are balanced and I'll endeavor not miss any more games over the next nine weeks.

Much has been written by me and others about the joke that was the refereeing in the Arabe Unido game this past Wednesday, and what it says about both CONCACAF Champions League and CONCACAF itself. One final comment before moving on: It's a teachable moment for all concerned. The lessons are there to be learned and perhaps something good will come out of the whole thing. The key point for Dynamo is that the team got a point on the road, still the only MLS team to do that in group play. So now we move on to Pachuca and the future.

OK, on to MLS. According to Sports Club Stats (and huge kudos to the always excellent Dan Loney for pointing me over thataways. He almost has me becoming a LAG fan, though not quite.): Here are the current probabilities of securing MLS playoff berths:

Crew - 99.7%
Dynamo - 99.3%
Fire - 97.8%
Galaxy - 91.8%
CD Chivas - 88.1%
Sounders - 70.5%
Rapids - 70.2%
Revolution - 69.5%
Real Salt Lake - 38.6%
D.C. United - 38.4%
Toronto FC - 32.6%
Wizards - 1.8%
FC Dallas - 1.5%
Earthquakes - 0.1%
Red Bulls - Out

Hard to argue with most of that, though here's hoping DeRo can get his Reds to climb that ladder and take out RSL. However, he'll have to get a result this weekend in Seattle to do it. More on that in a sec. And team most likely to turn an 88.1 percenter into complete hash? Translates to an English word that rhymes with throat (as in choke).

So it's with this situation in mind that we get on to the Week 24 predictions:

Last week: 3-5
Overall: 70-85 (.452 or 18 games over blind chance)


TORONTO FC at SOUNDERS 2-0 Seattle All I have to say is that Ljungberg pouts in the kind of performance he had here at Robertson last week, then Toronto has no chance. The only one there tough enough to neutralize him is Adrian Serioux, who is out through yellow accumulation (a common occurrence for the guy, no?). Honestly, other than just a flat performance from the home side, I don't see a bad road team like the Reds making it out of Qwest Field with any kind of favorable result. But De Rosario has made a habit of proving people wrong before.

EARTHQUAKES at REVOLUTION. 3-0 New England Another one that looks from the outside to be a real yawner. New England is doing something they haven't done in two years, playing with a real killer edge. Saan Jose, on the other hand, needed an injury time goal from Wondo (Nice one Chris!) to escape the Wizards at home last week. I hope it's an eastern conference final of Columbus and New England in November. That might just be one for the ages (and soften up the survivor to play Dynamo in the HDC a week later, maybe?)

DC UNITED at FIRE 1-1 Draw Last week I predicted that the Chicago/Colorado game would represent the unraveling of the Fire this season, and I was about 12 minutes away from being right! Then of course, the Crapids put out the "Vacancy" sign over the goal and the rest is history. (Bruce Banner scored a score for the Fire? Great, MLS gets Banner, while FC Porto has Hulk. Typical.)

REAL SALT LAKE at WIZARDS. 1-1 Draw Sometimes you just have to make a prediction about which you have no confidence at all. To be honest, I have no idea about this one. The Wizards are woeful, but then again, once they hit the road, so is RSL. So I'll give them each an ugly goal and walk away. Quickly.

las chivitas at GALAXY 2-0 LAG Goat meat man. I saw how many people were suddenly and predictably, saying that Preki's boys had turned it around by dominating the Little Sister of the Poor (aka RBNY and a road weary TFC) and bringing in Jesus Padilla. Then they get completely dismantled by RSL 4-0 the other night. Watch those highlights and you tell me what kind of team that truly is over there. The free fall for the Amerigoats continues as they're never really in this game. Afterwards, look for the same people to openly question whether Preki will last to the end of the season. (However, for Orange purposes, I'm hoping for a 0-0 draw here. Priorities.)

DYNAMO at CRAPIDS 2-1 Orange The Scorpion strikes! Landin will be a beast here, and I look for him to start alongside Ching after that brutal game in Panama on Wednesday for Kamara. Colorado may be putting that late loss to Chicago in the rear view mirror, but they have never played well against Dynamo either on the road or at home. And with Colin Clark out for the season and Conor Casey coming back from a thigh strain, how much does that team miss the playmaking ability and deadly crosses of Terry Cooke? A needed three for Dynamo here.

NYRB at CREW. 5-0 Columbus Scoring a late winner against Dallas is one thing (I still haven't stopped laughing about that game. Feeling down? Check out the highlights again. It's the gift that keeps on giving.), but coming into Columbus and getting a result. Post-JSO or no, this is not a team capable of that. Now c'mon Juan Pablo, prove me wrong. I'll buy and wear a Colombia jersey if you do. Read more!

Nine minus one, Week 23 (!) predictions

(Thanks to Nigel Brooks for that image.)


So what with the CONCACAF Champions League game last night, as well as El Escorpion's signing (which may just be even better than this Orange Scorpion), it completely missed my notice that there was indeed an MLS game last night. Not only that, it's one that has some import on Dynamo.

Chicago proved once again how eminently beatable they are at home, losing 2-0 to the Gals on goals from Mike Magee (Did you see his cutback before putting it on frame? Sick.) and Landon. LAG is now only five points back of Dynamo with a game in hand. They could be two points back as they also play Saturday, this time with that British guy we've all been hearing so much about back in midfield.

The LAG-Fire game was the first of an amazing nine MLS contests in Week 23. (Hey, I had no idea about all this weird stuff about the number 23. One ironclad rule about religious sociology, humans will believe anything.) So without further ado, let's get after it.

Last week: 3-3 (with one game, the Amerigoats' 2-0 pasting of NYRB, exactly right!)
Overall: 67-80 (.456, or 18 games above blind chance)

REVOLUTION at SOUNDERS. 2-1 Seattle The Revs are without Stevie Nicol on the bench again, while the Sounders are without Tyrone Marshall on the field. You tell me which is worse. As the game goes on and New England looks around, seeing another team with NFL ties but playing to a packed house, Seattle will get behind them and score. High hopes: If Fredy Montero gets a yellow, he sits this weekend. Same for migraine boy Ljungberg (assuming he plays at all). (And I do not in any way disparage migraine suffering. My wife gets those and they are not anything to dismiss out of hand.) But with Baldomero "Dynamo-killer" Toledo blowing the whistle, watch him award yellow to every Sounder except Montero.

GALAXY at DC UNITED. 1-0 DCU Hmmm. I meant to write "1-0 LAG" there and for some reason my hands revolted and typed DCU. OK then. I go with my hands. Still, LA has been great recently while DC has been rubbish. Did you see their loss against Toronto last week? Best not. But DC is always tough at home, and since they really played only half a game against Maraton, maybe they're rested. Whatever. Go DC, I guess.

WIZARDS at EARTHQUAKES. 2-0 San Jose Slowly, as the game goes on, it begins to down on Peter Vermes that Curt Onalfo was probably the least of KC's problems. To quote Donald O'Connor in Singin' in the Rain, "She can't sing, she can't dance and she can't act. She's the triple threat." They'll make San Jose look good, no mean feat.

TORONTO FC at CHIVAS USA. 2-1 las chivitas Jesus Padilla, that Americano, will perform well, but what really leads to this result is that the Reds are terrible on the road. Chivas finally broke their long, looong non-winning streak in Giants Stadium last week, but then again, isn't a game against NYRB that just what any doctor would order when presented with a streak like that? Anyway, where was I, OH YEAH! This game. Chivas struggles and maybe DeRo bombs another one over Zach Thornton (like this one), but the Amerigoats should win this one.

FC FRISCO at NYRB. 2-0 Dallas Did you see that game that NYRB played against Chivas last week? This team really is as bad as all that. So candystripers, this one's for you.

RAPIDS at FIRE 1-1 Draw So is this the weekend that Chicago's 2009 dream goes down the tubes? First Soumare and Hamlett dust it up in the locker room, then the Galaxy embarrass them, and then finally Colorado comes in and grabs a draw (and possibly a win, which is what I wanted to pick at first before I changed it). Very possibly. To be fair, the fire is still only four points back of the idle Crew (Idle? In a weekend with nine games!!?!?!??) this weekend, and with a win here will be putting serious pressure on the East leaders. But I think you'll see the difference in the East between the Crew and everyone else here.

REAL SALT LAKE at REVOLUTION 1-0 New England Just like I said about the Sounders last week, I will not pick RSL to win a road match until they do it. (And look how that worked out. Hmmm.) And I am sticking with that, even against a hobbled and overworked Revolution team.

SOUNDERS at DYNAMO. 3-1 Houston No matter how they did last week, I don't think the Sounders, playing their second game in three days, are going to be able to walk into Robertson and pull off a win here. Landin may or may not have much time to train with his new teammates, but if he does play, pairing with the Flyin' Hawaiian up front and Holden directing the service (Did you see that ball last night that led to the goal? I've watched it today five times just to see it again. Wow.), I think Dynamo will overwhelm Seattle at home. Added to that is that Dynamo really is none too happy with Seattle after those two short-handed losses against them a few weeks ago. Orange trumps green here. Read more!

MLS quick picks for Week 22

GottapickgottapickgonnapicksomewinnersrightnowOKOKOKhereIgo!!!!!!!!!

Rules this week: No thinking. Just go, go, go.

Last week: 3-3
year to date: 64-77 (.454 or 17 games above blind chance)

DC UNITED at TORONTO FC. 1-1 draw DeRo scores early, but DC United comes back because, let's face it, Stefan Frei's rookie aura is wearing off.

CHIVAS USA at RED BULL NEW YORK. 2-0 las chivitas Finally, Chivas find a team it can beat. But you know, I'm not 100 percent certain that Chivas isn't playing worse than NY currently. Still, I'm no dummy, and the rules this week are simple, first reaction is the one I go with.

FC FRISCO at CREW. 2-1 Columbus Frisco scores late goal, but never seriously threaten.

DYNAMO at REAL SALT LAKE 2-1 Orange Hmmm, can Jason Kreis survive the season? I don't think he's going to get fired. I think that one more bad call from an MLS ref and he's going to have a coronary right on the spot! Goal-den Holden makes the same cross he made in Azteca, only this time the taller Kei Kamara connects in a way that Charlies Davies could not.

SOUNDERS at GALAXY. 2-0 LA Seattle has to actually win a road game before I pick them to do so.

FIRE at WIZARDS. 2-1 Fire Peter Vermes era starts off well in the first half, but Fire introduce dose of reality in the second. Read more!

Future Shockers: Silverland exodus; Thierry Henry to Houston?; Weekend

So branching out from the usual look at just this weekend's festivities, let's move into some present weirdnesses and see what the crystal bowl is showing us now about events around the bend (or off the deep end, as the case may be).

1. The indefinite delay of the Argentine Primera Division's 2009 Clausura season (read that story here), which is absolutely shocking to me. Does this mean that there will suddenly be an outflow of Argentine players to leagues around the world? Will the January transfer window be Argentina Month? I just am having a hard time wrapping my head around this one. Here's what The Offside-Argentina has to say about it:

Julio Grondona has put his considerably heavy foot down and delayed the start of the season until clubs pay all the money that they owe to their players. In the Primera seven clubs owe around $30 million to various players. Those clubs - Independiente, Racing, River, Newells, San Lorenzo, Central and Huracan. Another $10 million is owed by 15-ish clubs in the B.

The total amount owed could be higher, because only the amounts reported to organization responsible for protecting the players rights is being counted. Most of the clubs mentioned are springing into action (and by that I mean hocking their grandmothers) to erase the debt and maintain the current start of the season.

So my prediction: A few teams in the bottom of the table go bankrupt and a coalition of Boca, River Plate, Estudiantes and one or two others combine to solve the problem. That or the whole league goes under and there will never be another club match in Argentina. (But I'd got with "A".)

2. Barca's tour through the US and Henry coming to Houston. I have said for a long time that if I can start a rumor that Thierry Henry is coming to Dynamo, I will have accomplished my goal as a blogger. There are plenty of reasons why he should: A top quality organization, easily the class of MLS. A multicultural city with a sizable French population. Close proximity to his good friend Tony Parker. He was already wearing orange last night in Seattle (Though a shade you can see from the Space Station. Wow.)

So help me out here and spread the word: Thierry Henry is coming to Houston. Thierry Henry is coming to Houston. Thierry Henry to Houston.


3. You know, for a team that has never won a CONCACAF Champions League game, and just had the dubious honor of advancing in CCL without winning, this site here is pretty hubristic, which just makes me all aglow over having watched Dynamo punk them last week. So the question is: Will an MLS team other than Dynamo win a CCL game this time around? My guess is yes, but it'll be Columbus vs. PR Islanders. The schedule, etc. can be found here.

4. The madness continues. Last week was proof positive that if you use my predictions of the future as the basis of any actual cash wager, then there is little hope for you. Not only did I miss Frisco's 6-0 beheading of Curt Onalfo, but neither did I predict that the EQuakes would put a four spot on Kasey Keller. Now to be fair to myself, neither did anyone else make those prediction (or at least not that I saw), but I still have plenty of work to make up after two consecutive losing weeks. So, without further ado:

Last week: 2-4
Overall: 61-74 (.452 or 16 games over blind chance)

DYNAMO at FC FRISCO 6-0 Orange I don't actually believe that scoreline, but the point is that if you had to pick any team that could follow a 6-0 pasting with an 0-6 loss, both at home, the candystripers would have to be one of the teams you'd pick, right? To be certain, FC Frisco is not NYRB here, not by a longshot. However, they are not worldbeaters by any stretch. And Dynamo, with the recovered Kei Kamara available off the bench and perhaps Dom Oduro (who I have pilloried on occasion) motivated to bust up his former team, are clearly the superior side. It's hard to beat a team three times in one year (after all, these guys are professionals), but look to see it happen at Robertson North tonight.

GALAXY at REVOLUTION. 2-1 NE You know, I can see the exact opposite scoreline taking place as well. But I'm going with my feeling here. LA played well against Barca, no doubt about it, and New England is on a great run of form, easily their best of the season. New England is at home, and I think that will carry the day, even without the suspended Steve Nicol. (But perhaps even more fun than the game is reading about what a piker David Beckham is because LA lost the game.)

WIZARDS at DC UNITED. 2-0 DCU And BAM, Peter Vermes is fired before the plane touches down back in Missouri. Not really, but I find it hard to believe that DC, as tired as they might be, can't handle this squad, playing with Claudio Lopez.

SOUNDERS at REAL SALT LAKE. 1-1 Draw Seattle is clearly not as bad as they showed against San Jose last week. The only thing is, with RSL you never know what you're going to get. The suspended Jason Kreis will not be there, and who knows what effect that will have? The main factors of Seattle trying to come back from a bad result and RSL at home just points to a draw.


las chivitas at RAPIDS. 2-1 Colorado And down goes Bizarro Chivas, who haven't played since getting blown out 2-0 at New England July 19. Dynamo ruined Chivas when Stuie's goal beat those guys here at Robertson Stadium June 10, and the goatlings have gone only 0-7-1 since. Rest or no, they're toast. As for Colorado, they're not that good, but at home at altitude they're more than enough for Chivas.

CREW at EARTHQUAKES 2-1 Columbus This game at Candlestick Park (That place is still there?) is going to be a comedown of sorts for San Jose. After a comeback draw against DCU and a blowout win over Seattle, San Jose is riding high, and they should be deservedly confident. However, Columbus isn't backing down from anyone these days in any circumstances, and it's going to take a top-quality team to beat them. That does not describe San Jose.

RED BULLS at TORONTO FC. 1-1 Draw Toronto got schooled by Puerto Rico Islanders over the week, while RBNY was excruciatingly teased and then dispatched by W Connection in CONCACAF Champions League play this past week. I know those aren't MLS games, but they're indicative of two sides that just are not that good. Toronto is definitely above average and I hope they make the playoffs and get their revenge on Columbus in the first round, though at this point I would be surprised if they did. Still, RBNY, as completely woeful as they are, can not lose every game (can they?). So while 99 percent of people will probably pick the Reds to win, I think it'll be tight, tight enough to end in a drraw.

FIRE at DYNAMO. 2-1 Orange This will easily be the best game of the weekend. The Fire will be coming in tough and rested and eager for revenge after Dynamo stole that win in Toyota Park. But with a larger than usual crowd in Robertson, and Stewie bobbleheads all around, Dynamo will edge out with the win. Read more!

Greatest American Hero and Week 20 picks

It's been a busy week, so I am finally getting my weekly crystal ball readings posted after a few thoughts about the spectacle at Rio Tinto earlier this week.

As for the All-Star Game, I have read so many blogs and comments dissing the existence of the game and, to be honest, I just don't get the objection.

Taking some time off as a league in the middle of the season, honoring the players who have had a stellar first half and putting together a little friendly and top XI, what is so bad about that? Did you see those guys on the field at Rio Tinto? They were having a great time and their enthusiasm was contagious. I was laughing out loud when Kasey Keller came back in and seeing David Moyes joking with John Spencer about him getting into the game instead.

The All-Star Game reminds us all that this is a game after all. It's about fun. It is not a deathly serious thing. Wins and losses in the event mean nothing about either MLS' status as a (to use Steven Goff's NCAA basketball tournament-influenced term) mid-major, MLS players as quality footballers or any other damn thing. No other league in the world does this? Why do I care about that? No no, more important question: Why should I care about that?

Here's what I care about. The 20,000+ in the stands had fun. The players had a gas. The staff and front office workers around MLS enjoyed themselves. It's time to put aside the objections and come join the damn party. (Or don't. It's up to you. Your margarita is mine!)

On the field, even though my league lost, I found it impossible to be upset in the slightest. And the reason for that is in the person of one Timothy Matthew Howard, or as I like to call him the Greatest American Hero. After the shootout, I had one thought only: "That is the man who will lead us into Azteca." Thinking that, and after that game, I went to bed happy.

On to this week's picks:

LAST WEEK: 3-4
YEAR TO DATE: 59-70 (.457; 16 games above blind chance)

TORONTO FC at REVOLUTION. 3-0 New England. In the VD Cup (reVs v reDs) both of these teams are coming in at something near full strength, though of course for New England this year, that is something of a relative term. However, Toronto had a tough game at home the night before the All-Star Game, a loss to Puerto Rico Islanders in the CONCACAF Champions League. I watched most of that game and saw a Reds team that was pouring it all out in their international competition debut (or at least DeRo was). What I'm getting to here is that the Reds are tired and in something of a free fall. Contrast that to the Revs, who are coming off victories against las chivitas at home and Dynamo on the road and are finally brimming with something approaching confidence for the first time this year. I think New England is going to run away with this game. And here's an outside (and I hope incorrect) prediction: This is the one game on fake turf too far for Dwayne De Rosario's knees. He will be out for 3-4 weeks after this game. Please, please MLS Players Association, make this a bargaining point and get rid of this curse on the human race.

DC UNITED vs. DYNAMO. 2-1 Orange Here's a nice picture of parity: These two teams have an all-time mark of 3-3-1 against each other. Dynamo have their national teamers back, but are still missing Mullan and Mulrooney (not to mention Eddie "The Invisible Man" Robinson). I do expect a slow start as Holden and Chingy get their Orange legs back. However, DC played that midweek CCF draw against Firpo after drawing at San Jose last week and then flying back out to here. So it makes sense to favor the Orange in a tight battle. And for my personal history as well. I've chronicled before (on this link) that a Dynamo/DC game was my Road to Soccer Damascus moment. I expect no less Saturday night. Here's that moment again for you to make your heart go "Dale! Dale!":



WIZARDS at FC DALLAS. 2-0 KC Can someone please explain the Kenny Cooper to 1860 Munich to me? That team finished 12th in 2. Bundesliga last year and is on a free fall. They are 12th, 11th, 8th and 13th in the 2. Bundesliga in the last four years. Kenny Hassan on World Soccer Daily Friday made the amazing assertion that the team is worse (WORSE!!) than FC Dallas. And you know what, he might be right! Think about that for a second: Worse than FC Frisco. Let that sink in. I know money is money and Europe is Europe, but you're telling me that THIS was the best offer they could have gotten? There's more to this story. There has to be. Back at the friendly caverns of Pizza Hut Park, I expect KC, who is awful in its own way, to just blow past these guys now that they're getting the full reality that Cooper, easily Frisco's best player and, for my money, still their probable 2009 MVP, is gone. The quit will be palpable.

RSL at FIRE. 2-0 Chicago John Thorrington's out for Chicago, while Jason Kreis is out for RSL, who also has a banged-up squad who doesn't play well on the road when they're healthy anyway. Chicago will dominate this game.

CREW at RAPIDS. 1-1 Draw. Has anyone seen Columbus play recently? Those guys are playing with style and flair and finding ways to win, just like last year. Colorado, on the other hand, has been the wall hanging that continually bugs you out of the corner of your eye until you can't stand it anymore. The picture of uneven. So in the Col v Col Confab, why am I not picking a Col win? Two reasons: 1. Schelotto, , the Crew leader, is still out; and 2. Elevation. Columbus is still good enough to salvage the road draw though. I'm not that crazy.

SOUNDERS at EARTHQUAKES. 2-1 Seattle You did indeed read it here first last week when I predicted that San Jose would do well against DC United. (Full disclosure: I picked SJ to win, not tie, but picking them not to lose took some stones by my way of thinking.) But this week, sorry San Jose. I know you're riding high about coming back on DC United and all, but Seattle's run of form recently is better than anything you Trembles have put together all year. Seattle is good and playing good. San Jose, on the other hand, will go into this game missing Arturo Alvarez, and probably Ryan Johnson. And even though Sounders will be without Ljungberg, the Montero-Jaqua-Zacuani front is more than enough for this team. Fun fact: If Seattle wins this game, they will have swept the season series. Last time the Earthquakes beat the Sounders was in 1983 in the NASL. Wow. (When the EQuakes beat Seattle in the Western Soccer Alliance in 1987, Seattle was named the Storm, so it doesn't count! NYAH, NYAH, NYAH.) Read more!